The day after Democrats romped to a historic electoral victory, Tarek Mansour, the founder and chief executive of Kalshi, boasted that his online prediction platform had proved the crowd could outsmart the experts. “Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands,” he wrote in a lengthy post on Elon Musk’s X. “The elites,” he added, “live in a bubble,” no match for what the “everyday man,” expressing his views through prediction-market trades, sees and feels on the ground.
The world’s most famous electoral forecaster wasn’t in the mood for such revisionist history. “Give me a break,” responded Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, who now runs the election forecasting site Silver Bulletin.
Mansour’s post helped kick off a wave of…
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