Belloni's Oscars Breakdown

The 97th Annual Academy Awards—airing at 7pm ET on ABC—arrives this year at a moment of tremendous uncertainty for Hollywood. The industry is reeling from the devastating wildfires, struggling to navigate relentless technological disruption, and bracing for the deeply polarized political landscape with Donald Trump back in the White House.

To make sense of it all, I spoke with Matt Belloni. It goes without saying that Belloni is one of the most well-connected voices in the business, authoring the must-read "What I'm Hearing" newsletter. We discussed the biggest storylines of the night, from the unpredictability of the Best Picture race to Netflix’s handling of the Karla Sofía Gascón controversy, and whether the Academy can reverse its declining influence.

Below is the Q&A, lightly edited for style.

Conan O’Brien is hosting the Oscars this year, and it’s happening in a particularly difficult moment for Hollywood—between the fallout from the wildfires and Donald Trump’s return to the White House. What kind of tone do you expect from O’Brien? Will he lean into sharp political humor, or do you think he’ll keep it light?

I doubt we will hear the words "Donald Trump" from Conan all night. Politics is not really his brand, and I know the Academy wanted him in part because he's NOT gonna torch Trump or give right-wing media a ton of talking points.

Leading up to tonight, award shows have been relatively quiet on political statements. Do you think we’ll see any from the Oscar stage, or has the industry shifted away from that post-2020?

I would've said no politics, but the [Volodymyr] Zelensky stuff on Friday was pretty incendiary, and it's come up at parties this weekend. So there might be Trump zingers in speeches. Especially if Jeremy Strong (possible) or Sebastian Stan (unlikely) wins for “The Apprentice.”

The uproar surrounding Karla Sofía Gascón has overshadowed much of her Best Actress campaign, putting Netflix in a very tricky position. How do you think they’ve handled the controversy? And do you think the backlash will affect her chances of winning?

She's not winning! Not now. Netflix handled the situation fine. They probably salvaged a win for Zoe Saldana in Supporting Actress, and maybe Song or even International Film. But not discovering Gascon's horrible tweets in advance is pretty inexcusable. Netflix has the largest awards campaign operation in Hollywood, and they knew the first openly transgender nominee would be heavily scrutinized. Nobody thought to just give her Twitter feed a quick look??

Best Picture feels especially unpredictable this year, with several strong contenders in the mix. Who do you think could pull off an upset? And what do you think ultimately determines which film gets over the finish line in 2025?

I would not be that surprised if “Brutalist,” “Conclave,” or even “A Complete Unknown” end up beating “Anora.” With so many polarizing films, the ranked preferential ballot will be a big factor. It's designed to reward broad consensus by elevating the number 2 or number 3 picks when a voter's number 1 is eliminated. I know a lot of voters who put “Conclave” and “Complete Unknown” as number 2 or 3.

"Dune: Part Two"—a Status favorite—was one of the biggest and most visually stunning films of the year, yet it was surprisingly snubbed in major categories like Best Director and even Costume Design, where it seemed like an obvious frontrunner. Why do you think the Academy overlooked Denis Villeneuve and the film in these key areas? Do they really hate sci-fi THAT much?

I honestly think a lot of voters didn't watch “Dune 2” because they saw the first one and thought it was more of the same. EW did one of those anonymous ballot pieces and none of the four voters had seen it. Also it's not uncommon for the Academy to snub sequels, especially when they know a third is coming. Peter Jackson wasn't nominated for directing “Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,” and then he swept for “Return of the King,” including winning best picture. Let's hope “Dune 3” is as deserving.

Every year, there are shocking snubs and surprising nominations. Aside from "Dune," what were the biggest head-scratchers for you this year?

No nominations for “Challengers,” including for that amazing score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross that was all over social media for months. I also thought Denzel [Washington] was a shoo-in for “Gladiator II.” Paramount dropped the ball on that one.

You wrote this week about how the Oscars were originally conceived as a promotional tool for American filmmaking, but with declining ratings and a growing disconnect between the Academy and mainstream audiences, has the show lost its cultural influence altogether? What would it take to bring the Oscars back to being a must-watch event for the average moviegoer?

What's that Alec Baldwin line from “30 Rock”? "Make it 1997 again through science or magic"? Part of that audience is gone forever, but the Academy would really benefit from finally approaching the Oscars like a TV show for viewers at home, not like a trophy ceremony for people in the room. And nominate more commercial films. That would require changing the makeup of the Academy to better reflect people who actually make mainstream movies that play in U.S. theaters.

If you were in charge of the Oscars, what specific changes would you make to reinvent the show for the modern age and restore its cultural relevance?

Oh man, lots. Eliminate about half the 23 categories from the telecast and use that time to celebrate movies in general; debut exclusive footage of upcoming summer blockbusters; show a deleted scene from an iconic film that has never been seen before; break news that movie lovers care about (like [Steven] Spielberg could come out and reveal what his super-secret next movie is all about, Chris Nolan could explain his approach to “The Odyssey,” Jordan Peele could announce the stars of his next movie); get great comedic filmmakers to spend all year making fun video shorts to debut on the show; stage major star reunions and have them do more than just walk out and present together; book major musical performances. To give the night more stakes, count down the best picture nominees from 10 to 1 throughout the show, with an “American Idol”-style "final 3" at the end of the night and a big, suspenseful reveal of the winner. And release the actual vote count for each movie so viewers can see how close it was.

With the ABC/Disney broadcast deal expiring in 2028 and the Academy already bracing for a potential financial hit, what do you think the next broadcast deal looks like? Could we see the Oscars move to streaming?

Netflix would love the Oscars, and would probably be willing to overpay. But the Academy is already talking to Disney/ABC about a possible re-up, and a likely scenario is less money and global rights, something similar to what the Grammys just did. Let's see if Bob Iger shows up tonight.

• Who will take home Hollywood’s most prestigious award? Gold Derby has the final predictions and odds in all 23 categories. [Gold Derby]

• Morgan Freeman will honor Gene Hackman. [Daily Beast]

• Harrison Ford will not present after being diagnosed with shingles. [Deadline]

• Vogue has started posting red carpet photos. [Vogue]

• Callie Holtermann went behind-the-scenes at the rehearsals. [NYT]

• The New York Post published highlights from all the pre-oscars parties, hosted by the likes of WME, CAA, and Saint Laurent. [Page Six]

• Vanity Fair went inside the Chanel and Charles Finch pre-Oscars dinner, attended by Mick Jagger and Kim Kardashian. [Vanity Fair]

• Oscar Holland spoke to Hollywood party photographer Dafydd Jones about what it's like behind the lens at the festivities. [CNN]

• Don't know how to watch the red carpet and big show? The Associated Press has you covered. [AP]

• Elon Musk appeared for yet another lengthy interview with Joe Rogan. In the episode, the two fanned all sorts of conspiratorial flames, including suggesting that CNN was somehow in on the assassination attempt of Donald Trump because the news network happened to be broadcasting the rally. Yes, really. [YouTube]

  • Fox News’ Joe Concha, who once desperately worked to be taken seriously by industry professionals as a media reporter, also got in on the action: “CNN never airs Trump rallies anymore (they aired plenty in 2015-2016 for ratings). The question is — why this one?”

  • CNN responded: “CNN provided live coverage of President Trump’s Butler, PA, rally in anticipation of news about his pick for Vice President. Any suggestion contrary to that fact is completely false.”

  • While watching the clip of Musk, I couldn't help but think of the fact that Warner Bros. Discovery boss David Zaslav had worked to befriend Musk, despite the fact the billionaire regularly trashes his news network. Not a good look!

• Jeff Bezos responded to criticism of his new mandate for The WaPo’s opinion division, replying to an X post that said it means the paper will argue in favor of the “ruling class.” Bezos wrote, “No but this is the kind of thing our opinions page might write about and work to illuminate. It is correct (and this may be in part what you’re referring to) though that we do NOT have free markets today and have not for some time. There is far too much interference in free markets in the form of corporate subsidies and special interest tax breaks etc.”

  • In another post on X, Bezos wrote, “We do NOT have free markets today and have not had them for a very long time. In general, corporate subsidies and special interest tax breaks are great examples of where government interferes with free markets.”

• Julie Pace appeared on "This Week" and said the Associated Press' lawsuit against the White House is ultimately "about whether the government can control the language that we use." [Mediaite]

• Ayman Mohyeldin addressed the changes at MSNBC, assuring viewers that he is “not leaving the network—in fact, quite the opposite.” [Mediaite]

• The Trump-controlled Voice of America placed Steve Herman on “excused absence” as it embarks on an absurd review of his social media posts, looking for supposed bias, David Folkenflik reported. [NPR]

• "Saturday Night Live" opened mocking Trump and JD Vance for the disastrous Oval Office meeting they hosted with Volodymyr Zelensky—in addition to Musk's dismantling of government. [YouTube]

  • The most up-voted comment on YouTube: "This was less chaotic and embarrassing than the real thing."

  • Colin Jost and Michael Che also traded turns skewering Trump and Vance during "Weekend Update." [YouTube]

• Susan Rice put MAGA propagandist Mollie Hemingway on blast for advancing a conspiracy theory about the Zelensky meeting: “You clowns are up to the same old tired crap. When your guy screws up and royally embarrasses himself and the U.S., you try to change the subject and lie about a favorite target to distract and deflect.” [The Wrap]

  • The WSJ Editorial Board also hasn't enjoyed much of the commentary from Trump’s MAGA Media allies (hello Fox News), writing: "It is bewildering to see Mr. Trump’s allies defending this debacle as some show of American strength." [WSJ]

• 🔌 I spoke to Thor Benson for Aaron Rupar's Public Notice newsletter about how Big Media and Big Tech are covering Trump's second term. [Public Notice]

• An anonymous person filed a sexual abuse lawsuit against Russell Brand. [Telegraph]

• The BRIT Awards honored Liam Payne: "He achieved so much in the short time that he was on this earth." [Variety]

• Yikes! “Captain America: Brave New World” pulled in an anemic $15 million, leading 2025’s lowest weekend at the box office. [Deadline]

• Focus Features’ “Last Breath” was on its last breath, pulling in a weak $7.3 million. [Variety]

• Elsewhere, “The Monkey” added $6.3 million; “Paddington in Peru” $4.5 million; and “Dog Man” $4.2 million. [Box Office Mojo]